trailing-3the same forecast at both locks (n=12093) — identical — nothing in this projector reads Saturday information
prior-seasonthe same forecast at both locks (n=10362) — identical — nothing in this projector reads Saturday information
season-to-datethe same forecast at both locks (n=12646) — identical — nothing in this projector reads Saturday information
positional-meanthe same forecast at both locks (n=12931) — identical — nothing in this projector reads Saturday information
Not measurable yet, and why
start/sit hit ratethe optimiser is built and the freeze writes calls, but his roster is a 2026 roster and 2026 has no played weeks — measurable from week 1, not on history
points left on the benchsame: no overlap between a 2026 roster and a played week
calibrationno frozen bet carries a sigma — the baselines emit a point estimate only